RFP: Propcom+ Y4 Baseline & Outcome Survey for Scaling Last-Mile Delivery of Vaccines Intervention

PROGRAMME BACKGROUND

Propcom+ is an eight-year (2023–2030) rural and agricultural market systems development programme funded by UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and implemented by Palladium. The programme promotes climate-resilient and sustainable agriculture and forestry that deliver benefits for people, climate, and nature.
Propcom+ seeks to transform Nigeria’s rural economy by addressing the environmental, social, and economic challenges within the country’s food and land-use systems. The programme pursues three interconnected objectives: (i) increasing agricultural productivity while improving nutrition and food security; (ii) strengthening climate resilience, reducing emissions, and protecting and restoring natural ecosystems; and (iii) addressing underlying drivers of conflict and insecurity in rural communities.

Now in its fourth year of implementation, Propcom+ continues to facilitate sustainable, pro-poor, and climate-resilient growth across selected rural markets. Operating as a market systems facilitator, the programme identifies constraints that limit market performance and catalyses systemic changes that enable markets to function more effectively for poor and climate-vulnerable smallholder farmers, as well as rural micro and small-scale enterprises.

The programme aims to increase the incomes and climate resilience of millions of poor and vulnerable Nigerians by 2030, with women accounting for at least 50% of beneficiaries. Following a strategic review at the end of Year 3, Propcom+ has streamlined from 11 portfolios and 36 interventions in Years 1–3 to three core portfolios and six interventions in Year 4. These interventions comprise a mix of scaling, pilot, and policy-focused initiatives. Each portfolio integrates core market transactions with supporting functions, while access to finance, policy, gender, and climate considerations are embedded as cross-cutting themes across the programme.

Propcom+’s geographical focus has also evolved over time. During Years 1–3, the programme adopted a two- to three-tier implementation model, prioritising states in North-West and North-East Nigeria (Tier 1) where climate-smart agricultural interventions address the needs of poor and climate-vulnerable populations, while implementing a more targeted set of activities in Southern Nigeria (Tier 2), focused primarily on deforestation-free commodity systems. In Year 4, the programme has sharpened its geographical focus, concentrating investments in key states across the North-West and North-East while reducing its southern footprint to a single state.

INTERVENTION DESCRIPTION
Scaling last-mile delivery of vaccines through the Community Animal Health Workers (CAHWs) and the Veterinary Para-Professionals (VPP) intervention.
Diseases are the biggest threats to livestock productivity, most of which are preventable if the rural veterinary distribution and service channels are developed. Yet, smallholders are disconnected from animal health services. Smallholders are vulnerable to diseases due to a limited supply of suitable vaccines and health products, poor distribution infrastructure and limited-service delivery agents at the last mile. The logistical challenge of reaching widely dispersed smallholdings is unattractive to veterinary companies, which is why rural channels remain underdeveloped.

Each year, a staggering GBP 6 million is lost due to diseases like Newcastle disease and PPR. The changing climate further exacerbates this situation, with rising temperatures (heat waves) making animals more susceptible to diseases. These diseases are directly and indirectly linked to a decline in egg and milk production, as well as a reduction in meat quality. The scale of these losses underscores the urgent need for action. A 15-pence vaccine (cost of ½ vial of 50-dose vaccine serving a farmer with 25 birds) can save 30 million rural farming households GBP4.32 billion annually.

Community Animal Health Workers (CAHWs) and Veterinary Para-Professionals (VPPs) are micro- and rural-entrepreneurs who deliver animal health services, including vaccinations, to rural poultry/livestock farmers for a fee. This model was initially developed by the predecessor programme (Propcom Mai-karfi). It began with the development of the community vaccinator’s network, which then evolved into the CAHW model to strengthen the delivery channels of related veterinary products and services. Over 3,000 vaccinators were onboarded, and 300 CAHWs were engaged in providing vaccination services for a fee to smallholders.
This intervention seeks to scale this model by crowding in more veterinary pharmaceutical distributors to engage more CAHWs/VPPs and deliver animal health services and products to more smallholder farmers across rural communities in Northern Nigeria. Support function actors, such as distributors of solar vehicles and refrigerators, will be linked to core actors to enhance the effectiveness of service delivery.

PURPOSE OF THE ASSIGNMENT Propcom+ is seeking the services of a firm or individual consultant to conduct two surveys for the intervention on scaling of last-mile delivery of vaccines through the CAHWs/VPPs model. The first will be a baseline survey (Mid-September to October 2026), followed by an outcome/end-line survey (February to April 2027).

*Key focus areas:*The survey will establish the baseline and outcome status of intervention-specific indicators and expected results. The assessment will focus on the following key thematic areas:

Socio-economic Characteristics of Farmers

• Demographic and household characteristics of poultry/livestock farmers;
• Disability status of household members, assessed using the Washington Group Short Set (WGSS) of questions;
• Household poverty status assessed using the Poverty Probability Index (PPI).

Poultry/Livestock Production Systems and Vaccination Practices

• Type and scale of poultry/livestock enterprises;
• Production practices, input use, husbandry, vaccination, and management practices;
• Access to extension and market services.

Climate Resilience

• Farmers' exposure and vulnerability to climate-related shocks;
• Adoption of climate-smart livestock management practices;
• Capacity to anticipate, adapt to, and recover from climate-related stresses.

Productivity and Profitability

• Production performance across the selected poultry/livestock categories;
• Output levels, morbidity, mortality rates, and production efficiency indicators;
• Gross margin and other measures of enterprise profitability.

Food Security and Nutrition

• Household food consumption patterns and dietary diversity;
• Food Consumption Score - Nutrition (FCS-N);

Intervention-Specific Outcomes

• Extent of adoption of promoted inputs (vaccines) and practices;
• Changes in climate resilience - Effect of the intervention on changes in flock sizes, mortality, morbidity, gross margins: assessed using panel regression analysis and/or t-tests to compare: (i) baseline and outcome results for intervention farmers, and (ii) intervention and non-intervention farmers at outcome; supported by an initial use of using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to ensure that any of the two groups being compared above are similar.
• Perceived benefits, challenges, and sustainability of intervention outcomes.

GEOGRAPHY, DESIGN AND SAMPLE SIZE CONSIDERATIONS
Geography Coverage: Both the baseline and outcome surveys will be implemented in two intervention states, comprising one state in the Northwest and one state in the Northeast. Within each state, the survey will cover a minimum of three Local Government Areas (LGAs) selected to ensure adequate geographic spread. The LGAs will be sufficiently distant from one another to capture variations in agro-ecological, market, and socio-economic conditions and to enhance the representativeness of the study findings.

Design and Sample Size:The baseline and outcome surveys will employ two distinct but complementary designs.
Baseline Survey: A cross-sectional survey will be conducted among 700 intervention beneficiary farmers to establish pre-intervention benchmarks.

Outcome Survey: A quasi-experimental design will be used to assess project results and compare outcomes between intervention and non-intervention farmers. A total of 1,500 farmers will be interviewed during the outcome survey, comprising:

• The same 700 intervention beneficiary farmers interviewed during the baseline survey, allowing for measurement of changes over time; and
• 800 non-intervention farmers, who will serve as a comparison group to support attribution of observed outcomes to the intervention.
• To complement the quantitative surveys and provide deeper insights into project implementation and outcomes, qualitative data collection will be undertaken through KIIs with CAHWs/VPPs and FGDs with Farmers. 2 KIIs and 2 FGDs per LGA, resulting in 12 KIIs and 12 FGDs overall is proposed.

This combined approach will enable both longitudinal assessment of intervention beneficiaries and comparative analysis against a non-intervention group.

Poultry/Livestock Category Coverage:Given the reduced sample size and the need to ensure adequate representation within each category, the study will focus on three of the five poultry/livestock classes (cattle, goats, sheep, broilers, and local chickens) targeted by the intervention. The final three categories will be selected in consultation with the project team based on intervention coverage, beneficiary distribution, and strategic learning priorities.

SCOPE
The consultant/firm is expected to carry out the following tasks:

1. Review programme information, including intervention decks and implementation updates.
2. Review related MERL information - intervention results chains, indicators, and indicator reference guidelines.
3. Prepare an inception report which includes: Methodology – research design (quasi-experimental design), method, sampling strategy, survey work plan. Survey questionnaire (soft copy MS Excel file – coded for Kobo Toolbox) and qualitative tools, as applicable. Data analysis plan for each outcome/end-line indicator. Survey reporting template.
4. Recruit and train a team of experienced data collectors.
5. Carry out quantitative data collection and analysis.
6. Collect and submit LGA-based data on the prices of production inputs (medication, feeds, etc.) used by farmers and the sales prices of the various types of poultry/livestock. This should be done through a focus group discussion with at least five lead farmers in each LGA, per state.
7. Present (in a meeting) the quantitative analysis to the programme team. This should be done before report writing.
8. Develop and submit the baseline and outcome/end-line survey reports for programme review.
9. Update and resubmit the baseline and outcome/end-line survey reports, addressing all the review feedback received.
10. Develop a PowerPoint presentation that compares baseline and outcome/end-line data showing changes in farmers' practices, adoption, and margins; and farmers feedback/perceptions on benefits, challenges, and sustainability of the intervention.

NOTES:

• The methodology and tools developed must align with the programme indicator measurement guidelines and the key focus areas of the study.
• The MERL Director’s approval is needed before the commencement of field data collection. The following process is needed: Pre-enumerator training, each enumerator should be asked to complete five full interviews. The consultant/FIRM should analyse the data generated and present it to the programme for validation and approval.
• More enumerators (than needed) should be invited for the enumerator training to ensure competition and selection of only quality enumerators for the study.
• The consultant/firm will mobilise the study respondents (intervention farmers) through the CAHWs/VPPs only; hence, they should directly engage the CAHWs/VPPs and arrange the necessary logistics. The consultants or enumerators should not contact farmers directly.
• Non-intervention farmers must be identified, screened, and mobilised by the consultants before the enumerator training. A report of this should be sent to the MERL team.
• Protocol for tracking or replacing respondents during outcome/end-line survey (should there be attrition) should be developed and agreed upon with the MERL team.
• The consultant/firm should review the collected data daily, share it with the MERL team, and hold daily meetings with the enumerators to provide feedback.
• Senior team members of the consulting team must remain in each state for the duration of the data collection.
• The consultant/firm is expected to update each deliverable using comments from the programme team and the donor. Reviews of draft and final reports will be in two stages. The consultant/firm is expected to implement the changes flagged at each stage before the next stage of review is activated. All comments from each round of review must be implemented satisfactorily and within the required timeline (hence, early submission is encouraged) before the final report is approved. Payments will be made after each deliverable is approved.

TIMELINES AND DELIVERABLES
This assignment is expected to commence on 17 September 2026, and end on 30 April 2027. Specific deliverables and timelines are shown below.

Baseline Survey

S/NDeliverables Due Dates 1

• Inception report (see components under scope above) with annexes.
• Soft copy of survey questionnaire (MS Excel file – coded for any electronic data collection tool)

20 September 2026 2

• Presentation of full data analysis (in MS Excel files) to the programme team
• Respondent signed consent forms (scanned and emailed; hardcopies submitted)
• Survey datasets and analysis workbook

5 October 2026 3

• Draft baseline survey report

11 October 2026 4

• Final baseline survey report
• Updated survey datasets and analysis workbook
• Presentation of survey findings (in PowerPoint deck) to the programme team

30 October 2026

Outcome Survey

S/NDeliverable Due Dates 1

• Inception report (see components under scope above) with annexes.
• Soft copy of survey questionnaire (MS Excel file – coded for any electronic data collection tool)

22 February 2027 2

• Presentation of full data analysis (in MS Excel files) to the programme team
• Respondent signed consent forms (scanned and emailed; hardcopies submitted)
• Survey datasets and analysis workbook
• Qualitative analysis tools (KIIs and FGD checklists)

10 April 2027 3

• Draft outcome survey report
• KII and FGD recording and transcripts

20 April 2027 4

• Final outcome survey report
• Updated survey datasets and analysis workbook
• Presentation of survey findings (in PowerPoint deck) to the programme team

30 April 2027

MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS: The consultant/firm will report to the MERL Manager overseeing this intervention. Close collaboration is expected with the technical implementation team and other members of the MERL team.

PROFILE REQUIREMENTS

• Advanced degree in social sciences and related fields
• Demonstrated strong research, analytical and technical writing skills:
• Evidence of at least 1 completed baseline survey in agricultural settings in Northern Nigeria.
• Evidence of at least 2 other socio-economic or livelihood surveys in agricultural settings in Northern Nigeria.

SUBMISSION REQUIREMENTS Applicants (individual consultant or firms) should submit the following:

Technical Proposal

• Capacity Statement (max of 2 pages) describing the consultant's/firm's understanding of the assignment, proposed approach and methodology, relevant experience in similar assignments, and contact details of at least two references for comparable work completed. Include the following (not counted as part of the 2 pages).
• Curriculum Vitae (CVs) of the Lead Consultant and any proposed team member(s), highlighting relevant qualifications, experience, and roles in the assignment.
• Examples of Previous Work, including at least one QED study in agriculture.
• Work Plan and Timeline showing key activities, deliverables, milestones, and timelines corresponding to the scope of work and deliverables outlined in this TOR.

Budget (see sections for design, location and sampling, and the rest of the TOR for guiding details)

• The budget should clearly distinguish between professional fees and reimbursable costs. Consultant professional fees should be presented separately from reimbursable expenses.
• Professional Fees: The proposed LoE (Level of Effort) in days and daily rate should be provided individually for each consultant/team member included.
• Reimbursables Costs: These are costs incurred in executing the assignment, including but not limited to enumerator fees, field supervision costs, venue hire, transportation, accommodation, communication, and data collection expenses. These costs should be itemized separately in the budget. Supporting receipts and other relevant documentation may be required for reimbursement.

Please send your submission to procurement.propcomplus@thepalladiumgroup.com, with the subject “Proposal for Y4 DOV Baseline and Outcome Study”. The deadline for submission is by 5pm, September 7th 2026.

Evaluation Criteria: The overall rating of submissions received will be based on the available score of 1-100 marks, using the assessment criteria below. Specifically, each criterion is to be rated against the weight assigned to it. The overall rating shall be as follows: 0 - 40 (unsatisfactory); 41 - 50 (satisfactory); 51 - 60 (average); 61 - 80 (above average) and 81 - 100 (exceptional)

Criteria Weighting (%)
Technical Proposal/Capacity Statement 70
Financial Proposal/Budget 30